World Bank trims Colombia’s 2026 growth outlook to 2.2% as structural strains persist

Colombia’s economy is heading for only modest growth in 2026, with the World Bank lowering its forecast to 2.2% and warning that structural weaknesses and global cost pressures continue to weigh on the outlook. The revised figure, down from a previous 2.6%, was described as leaving the country behind regional peers such as Chile, Argentina, Ecuador and Peru.

Latin America as a whole is projected to expand by about 2.1% that year, according to the bank. The World Bank said the immediate inflationary impact of recent shocks has been contained, but flagged persistent pressure on energy and transport costs that could pass through to basic household goods, posing renewed inflation risks.

Bill Maloney, the bank’s chief economist for Latin America and the Caribbean, attributed the downgrade to persistent fiscal strains, low productivity and weak business competition—factors that not only slow recovery but also limit the country’s ability to respond to external shocks.

The report noted that a familiar demand pattern endures: private consumption remains the main engine while investment stays subdued amid high global and domestic uncertainty and still-restrictive real, inflation-adjusted financing conditions. Progress against inflation is continuing, the bank added, although more slowly than previously expected.

Separately, the economic research center Fedesarrollo adjusted its growth projection for Colombia to 2.6% in 2026, with a projected range between 2.3% and 2.7%. Its outlook reflects deterioration in agriculture, industry and construction, partially offset by some dynamism in professional and artistic activities.

Monetary policy remains a fault line. Colombia’s central bank raised its benchmark rate to 11.25%, a step the World Bank called essential to contain inflation risks. The decision has stirred political tensions, as the government—which sits on the board through the Finance Ministry—has voiced differing views on the extent of monetary tightening.

With investment still weak and external uncertainties elevated, both institutions emphasized that addressing structural hurdles will be critical to lifting Colombia’s medium-term growth while keeping inflation under control.