Who will control Congress in 2026? Polls point to Democrats on generic ballot as markets split
Control of Congress is up for grabs in November, a contest that will double as a referendum on President Donald Trump’s agenda and could carry possible implications for another impeachment push. Republicans hold broad power across the federal government, with control of the White House, both chambers of Congress, a majority of governorships and a conservative Supreme Court.
That dominance faces a test on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, when all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 39 governor’s races will be on the ballot. Early indicators show a competitive landscape. According to RealClearPolling’s generic congressional voting average, 48.6% of respondents said they would vote Democratic, compared with 42.8% for Republicans, as of noon Wednesday, May 6, 2026.
The latest Economist/YouGov polling underscores uncertainty, with 27% saying they were unsure or would not vote. Trump’s approval rating has steadily declined in recent months, with polls hitting some of his lowest numbers of the term amid concerns over the ongoing war in Iran and rising costs at home.
Betting markets also reveal mixed expectations. On Polymarket, 35% of positions favored a split Congress—a Republican win for the Senate and a Democratic win for the House. Kalshi market predictions tilted toward a Democratic sweep at 43%, compared with 34% odds on a split Congress.
Polls and odds are constantly changing, and these figures reflect conditions as of midday May 6, 2026. The stakes are clear: a Democratic win in either chamber would loosen Trump’s control over his agenda and likely stall Republican efforts, while victories in both chambers would all but freeze the administration’s plans for the next two years.
Primary elections occur on different dates across the states, starting March 3 and running through Sept. 15, setting the slate for November’s decisive contests.