Who will control Congress after the 2026 midterms? Polls give Democrats an edge as markets split
Democrats hold a lead on the generic congressional ballot heading into the Nov. 3, 2026 midterm elections, a contest that will decide control of Congress and serve as a test of support for President Donald Trump’s agenda — with possible implications for another impeachment push.
Republicans currently control both the Senate and the House, as well as the White House, a majority of governorships and a conservative Supreme Court. That dominance will be tested when all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 39 governor’s races are on the ballot.
Midterms, held halfway through a president’s four-year term, are widely viewed as a referendum on the president and the current Congress, while ongoing primaries determine who appears on November’s ballot. According to RealClearPolling’s generic congressional voting polls, 48.6% of respondents said they would vote Democrat, compared with 42.8% who said they would vote Republican.
But the picture is complicated: an Economist/YouGov poll found that 27% of those surveyed were unsure or said they would not vote. Trump’s presidential approval rating has steadily declined in recent months, with polls hitting some of his lowest numbers of the term this week amid concerns over the ongoing war in Iran and rising costs at home.
A Democratic win in either the House or the Senate would loosen Trump’s control over his agenda and stall Republican efforts; victories in both chambers would all but freeze the administration’s agenda for the next two years. Betting markets offer a split view of the likely outcome.
On Polymarket, 35% of bets favored a balance of power — a Republican win for the Senate and a Democratic win for the House. The Kalshi market predictions, by contrast, favored a Democratic sweep by 43% over a split Congress with 34% odds. Note: Polls and odds are constantly changing.
These figures reflect polling and market odds as of noon Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Primary election dates vary by state, beginning March 3 and running through Sept. 15.