Week Ahead: March jobs report, retail sales, trade balance; Nike and Conagra earnings

Investors head into a crowded week for U.S. markets, with March’s employment report due Friday and fresh readings on February retail sales and the trade balance set to test sentiment after another down week for stocks. The backdrop remains tense: developments in the Iran conflict continue to command attention, potentially shaping risk appetite.

Labor market signals will take center stage. Employers cut 92,000 jobs in February, and economists will scour the March snapshot for signs of resilience or further softening. Ahead of the government’s report, Wednesday’s ADP data will offer an early look at private-sector hiring.

Worries over labor market weakness led the Federal Reserve to enact a series of interest rate cuts at the end of 2025. Since then, rising inflation readings have prompted the central bank to keep rates steady. Continued weakness in the labor market could put more pressure on the Fed.

Consumer activity is another key theme. Shoppers slowed at the start of the year, with economists citing poor weather as a drag, and Wednesday’s retail sales report for February will show whether that slowness persisted. With consumer spending accounting for roughly two-thirds of U.S.

economic output, Tuesday’s consumer confidence reading for March will also be closely watched, as it will likely capture public sentiment surrounding the impact of the U.S.’s conflict with Iran. The U.S. trade balance is also in focus this week. On the corporate side, Dow component Nike reports quarterly results as the sporting-goods giant navigates a turnaround amid a slide in its stock this year.

Some analysts see the recent decline as a potential low point, with Barclays recently upgrading the shares and noting the company’s financials may have hit a “fundamental bottom.” Analysts see a potential upside of 30% or more for Nike’s stock. Conagra Brands, maker of Slim Jim and other grocery staples, is also set to report after its shares fell about 11% this year.

Additional updates from McCormick & Co., Lamb Weston, Cal-Maine, and Progress Software will offer further read-throughs on consumer staples demand and enterprise spending. Together, the week’s data and earnings could shape expectations for consumer momentum and the path of interest rates into spring, as investors weigh economic signals against geopolitical risks.