Violent Crime in Post-COVID America
Posted March 15, 2026 | Reviewed by Jessica Schrader Given the tone of network and cable news coverage, it might come as a surprise to learn that crime in the United States—including violent crime—has declined in the post- COVID era. According to FBI statistics, violent crime in 2024 fell to its lowest level since 1969.
The picture appeared even more encouraging in 2025, when the nation’s murder rate dropped by roughly 20%, accompanied by declines across other major crime categories. These developments are particularly striking given another trend of the past several years: since 2019 and the protests following George Floyd’s death, police departments nationwide have, on average, shrunk by roughly 6%.
Researchers have proposed several explanations for this decline. The most persuasive—widely discussed among legal scholars and policy analysts—is that the reduction in crime rates significantly resulted from the massive post-pandemic investments in local governments made through the Biden administration’s American Rescue Plan Act, infrastructure funding, and other community-based programs.
These federal investments in prevention, services, and local infrastructure appear to have yielded significant social dividends. Consider Baltimore, for instance. City officials used federal funding to launch an outreach initiative targeting a group of young men believed to be trapped in cycles of retaliatory violence and, therefore, at high risk of committing serious crimes.
About 400 letters were sent to individuals identified through data analysis as part of this high-risk group; 360 responded and were offered various forms of support, guidance, and assistance. In addition, Baltimore invested in a series of neighborhood programs aimed at struggling communities: building public pools, expanding summer recreation opportunities, and creating job programs for teenagers .
These initiatives were guided by research suggesting that youth unemployment among teenage boys, and prolonged school closures during the pandemic were key drivers of rising crime during the COVID period. A central goal was to reduce the number of young men left idle on city streets without work, structure, or healthy outlets.
The results were dramatic. Baltimore’s homicide rate has fallen by roughly 60% and now sits at a 50-year low. And significantly, this improvement occurred despite a reduced police presence. Baltimore is not alone. Similar patterns have emerged across the country.
In Allentown, Pennsylvania, for example, homicides dropped to their lowest level in 40 years. Local officials attribute the decline to expanded job programs, improved paramedic response times, and conflict-resolution strategies implemented by community-based violence-interruption organizations.
Despite such evidence, skepticism remains widespread. Many observers doubt that what are often labeled “soft” community interventions could outperform traditional “tough-on-crime” approaches. Historically, public opinion has favored more punitive responses—greater police presence, stricter enforcement, and harsher sentencing.
Still, over the past two decades, particularly since the early 2000s, researchers and policymakers have increasingly recognized that criminal behavior often emerges from a complex web of social and environmental factors. As a result, prevention and rehabilitation have gained greater attention in criminal justice circles, and with the public.
Even so, especially in the aftermath of the pandemic, public belief in harsher punishments and expanded policing remains strong. Part of the explanation lies in how we intuitively think about crime. Police presence, arrests, and prison sentences are visible demonstrations of society’s investment in public safety.
They appear to represent common-sense deterrence. Community programs, by contrast—violence-prevention initiatives, neighborhood investment, youth employment, and social services—are less visible and less intuitively connected to…