U.S. beef producers pin hopes on Trump–Xi summit for China export license renewals
U.S. beef producers are pressing for a breakthrough at next week’s leaders’ summit, hoping a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on May 14–15 will lead to renewed approvals to export to China after registrations lapsed last year.
Amid the fallout from the U.S.–China trade war, U.S. beef exports to China peaked at $1.7 billion in 2022. Permissions that Beijing granted to U.S. facilities between March 2020 and April 2021 have since expired, and more than 400 plants lost export eligibility over the past year, according to Chinese customs data.
Those facilities account for roughly 65% of once-registered plants. Access for another three is set to expire in June, the U.S. Meat Export Federation said. China has not explained why it allowed the registrations to lapse, in violation of the 2020 Phase One trade agreement, said Joe Schuele, a spokesperson for the federation.
Producers and processors say the upcoming summit could provide an opening for license renewals. White House staff in recent weeks assured the United States Cattlemen’s Association that the issue will be discussed at the summit, according to the group’s president, Justin Tupper.
“We asked them to make sure that it would be part of the discussion, and the answer was: It will,” said Tupper, a South Dakota cattle producer. “We’re pushing to make it a big part of the discussion.” The White House referred questions to the Department of Agriculture, which did not respond to a request for comment.
China’s Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs also did not respond to requests for comment. Record U.S. beef prices, driven by dwindling cattle supplies, have already reduced exports and boosted imports. Still, the timing may favor renewed access to China, particularly as Australia is on track to reach its safeguard threshold in mid-2026, Schuele said.
China introduced a beef import quota system last December, imposing a 55% tariff on imports above quota for major suppliers such as the United States and Australia to protect its domestic industry. Australia surpassed 50% of its beef quota in the first quarter, according to customs data.
Chinese industry executives cautioned that restored approvals would not necessarily trigger a surge in U.S. beef shipments. They noted that U.S. beef faces a tariff that is 10% higher than Australian meat and increasing competition from domestic producers moving up the value chain.
“This is a bargaining chip for China, because the U.S. wants China to open up, but China does not lack beef,” said a director at a Beijing-based company that helps international beef firms with market access. Another executive at a beef importing and breeding company said a license renewal would be “purely a political gesture.” Both executives requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
The government is encouraging local producers to develop China’s own high-end cattle rather than rely on suppliers from the United States or Australia, the importing executive added. For now, U.S. producers will be watching whether the Beijing summit yields movement on license renewals and a path back into the world’s largest beef market by population.