Study finds VNSA drone attacks hit record in 2023, over half tied to Iran-linked groups

Small drones have moved from reconnaissance tools to weapons of choice for violent non-state actors, a new study finds, with attacks reaching a record in 2023 and most occurring in North Africa and the Middle East. The updated research, authored by Håvard Haugstvedt and expanding on a 2020 study he co-wrote with Jacobsen, catalogs armed UAV use by violent non-state actors (VNSAs) worldwide between 2006 and 2023.

Of 1,122 recorded incidents, 91.3 percent took place in North Africa and the Middle East, with Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Israel most affected. Iraq registered the highest number of attacks with 248 incidents, followed by Saudi Arabia, then Yemen and Israel.

The pace accelerated sharply last year. The study attributes the highest annual total of VNSA UAV attacks to 2023, identifying the Houthis in Yemen and ISIS as the most prolific actors, responsible for 431 and 257 attacks, respectively. Hamas, Hezbollah, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Iran-affiliated militia groups in Iraq and Syria also figure prominently.

Across the full timeframe, groups with ties to Iran account for 53.9 percent of all VNSA UAV attacks. In January 2024, an Iranian-backed militia group based in Iraq killed three US soldiers and injured more than 40 with a UAV attack on a remote US military base in Jordan.

The human toll captured in the dataset includes 494 fatalities and 868 injuries from VNSA UAV attacks between 2006 and 2023, though casualty information was not available in all recorded incidents. The earliest documented use by a VNSA dates to 2006, when Hezbollah launched three armed UAVs against Israel.

No additional attacks were recorded until 2014, when Hezbollah targeted al-Nusra, underscoring how activity has varied widely year to year. The study also tracks how the battlefield is expanding. Thirty-eight recorded incidents occurred in the Red Sea, either targeting vessels or, as seen frequently in late 2023, being intercepted in transit toward Israel.

Beyond the Middle East, the data show growth in Mexico and Myanmar. Myanmar saw 27 incidents, predominantly involving the People’s Defence Force against the military junta that seized power in 2021. Mexico recorded 22 incidents linked to clashes between feuding cartels or between cartels and Mexican security forces.

Target selection appears to remain largely discriminating, though the report notes a statistical shift. The share of attacks directed at military targets decreased from 57 percent in the 2020 analysis to 50.5 percent in the updated dataset, while incidents with an unknown target rose from 16.8 percent to 24.6 percent.

Researchers say the rise in unknown-target cases likely contributes to the apparent decline in military targeting, and that overall patterns remain consistent with 2020 findings: most VNSAs choose targets discriminately and direct most of their UAV attacks at military targets.

The authors note that UAVs are now used extensively across multiple conflicts, including fighting among Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah in the Middle East and clashes between the Houthis and an international coalition in the Red Sea. The updated dataset confirms earlier patterns while revealing a broader geographic spread than previously recorded.