RBA set for crunch rate call as kayakers rally for Gaza flotilla; Mayon erupts; tanker hijacked off Yemen

Australia’s central bank faces a pivotal decision this week, with financial markets and most economists expecting the Reserve Bank to deliver a third straight interest rate rise on Tuesday. ANZ Bank’s head of Australian economics, Adam Boyton, predicts the cash rate will be lifted to 4.35 per cent — matching its post‑pandemic peak — but says several board members are likely to argue for holding steady.

A repeat of March’s split decision could be on the cards as the board weighs stubbornly high underlying inflation and a tight labour market against signs of a stalling economy. Concerns that inflation expectations could become unanchored point toward a hike, while the economic fallout from the US‑Israeli war with Iran could persuade some members to allow more time to assess growth risks.

Away from the economic debate, more than 40 kayakers crossed Sydney and Newcastle harbours on Sunday in solidarity with Australians aboard the Global Sumud Flotilla. Six Australians were among more than 700 people on vessels attempting to deliver aid to Gaza who were detained by the Israeli military.

They have since been released but allege mistreatment. Israel’s foreign affairs minister, Gideon Sa’ar, insisted participants were not harmed when the flotilla was intercepted. Rising Tide organiser Emily Mitchell, who helped coordinate Sunday’s protest, called on the Australian government to cut ties with Israel and maintained the flotilla’s mission was legal and outside Israel’s jurisdiction.

Joanne Jaworowski, the mother of detainee Zack Schofield, said her son phoned on a borrowed handset to say he was in hospital for a medical review. In other developments, thousands of people have fled an area south of Manila after the Mayon Volcano erupted. The volcanology institute raised the alert to Level 3 on a five‑step scale, citing strombolian activity and short‑lived lava fountaining, and warned of landslides and lava flows.

Nearly 1,500 families are in evacuation centres, and heavy ashfall blanketed several towns in Albay province on Saturday, disrupting traffic. Mayon is one of the Philippines’ most active volcanoes and a well‑known tourist landmark for its near‑perfect cone. Maritime security also deteriorated off the Horn of Africa.

Somali pirates hijacked an oil tanker off Yemen on Saturday, diverting it toward Somali waters, officials said. The incident is the latest in a spate of abductions in recent weeks, with the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre raising the threat level around Somalia’s coast to “substantial”.

The effective closure of global oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s oil passed before the war, has pushed up fuel prices and forced workarounds. An official in Somalia’s semiautonomous Puntland region said some Yemenis were suspected in the attack and that authorities were probing possible links to armed groups, including the Houthi militia.

At least three vessels have been hijacked off Somalia since April. Yemen’s coast guard said the Togo‑flagged Eureka experienced an armed robbery and was directed through the Gulf of Aden. The RBA will hand down its decision on Tuesday.

Protest organisers say they will continue to press Canberra to act on the flotilla detentions, while Philippine authorities maintain exclusion zones around Mayon and maritime agencies monitor the latest piracy case.