Midterms 2026: Date, stakes and what early polls and markets show
The 2026 midterm elections, set for Tuesday, Nov. 3, will test public sentiment on President Donald Trump’s agenda as voters decide who controls Congress for the next two years. Every seat in the House of Representatives — all 435 — will be on the ballot, along with 35 of the 100 Senate seats and 39 governorships.
Republicans currently hold the levers of power: Trump in the White House, GOP majorities in both chambers of Congress, a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, and mostly Republican governors across the country. Midterms, held at the midpoint of a presidential term, are often viewed as a referendum on the president and the current Congress, while ongoing primaries determine who advances to November.
Trump’s presidential job approval rating has been in steady decline since the fall government shutdown and has since hit his lowest numbers of the term, amid the Iran war and rising prices. If Democrats capture either the House or the Senate this year, it would loosen Trump’s control of his agenda and stall Republican efforts; a Democratic win in both chambers would all but freeze the administration’s plans for the next two years.
Early indicators point to a competitive map. According to the latest RealClearPolling generic congressional vote as of noon Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 48.2% of respondents said they would vote Democrat and 42.9% said they would vote Republican. Betting markets also show a tilt toward divided government or Democratic gains.
On Polymarket, 39% favor a split Congress with Republicans winning the Senate and Democrats the House; 86% favor Democrats winning the House; 51% favor Democrats winning the Senate; 49% favor a Democratic sweep; and 13% favor a Republican sweep. Kalshi market pricing at the same time favored a Democratic sweep by 45% over a split Congress at 39%.
Polls and odds are fluid and can change. Primary election dates vary by state, running from March 3 through Sept. 15. Those contests will set the final matchups for November as both parties vie for control of Congress and the direction of the next two years in Washington.