Markets Brace for March Retail Sales, Tesla and Intel Earnings as Fed Meeting Looms

Wall Street enters a pivotal week with fresh reads on consumer spending and heavyweight earnings on deck, as geopolitical optimism helped propel major indexes higher. Investors remain focused on developments in U.S.-Iran relations, with news of a ceasefire and an open-for-business Strait of Hormuz firing up market sentiment on Friday.

The key economic spotlight arrives Tuesday with March U.S. retail sales. Market participants are watching for signs of how consumers are handling one of the largest jumps in inflation in years ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week, a period when tax refunds often bolster spending.

Observers generally expect the central bank to hold rates steady, though hopes of rate cuts in 2026 haven’t faded completely. Retail spending rose 0.6% in February after a slight January dip attributed to harsh weather, according to the Census Bureau. Corporate updates could add fresh catalysts.

Quarterly reports from the so-called “Magnificent 7” begin Wednesday when Tesla posts results. Sluggish electric-vehicle demand has weighed on Tesla shares, even as the company positions itself as an emerging technology specialist. Recent announcements shed light on CEO Elon Musk’s ambitions and lifted the stock: Musk said Tesla has finished designing a new chip and brought Intel in as a partner on its “terafab” chip production project.

Investors are also considering how a potential initial public offering of Musk’s space company, SpaceX, could affect Tesla. Intel is also set to report results this week. Airlines are in focus as well, with United Airlines, American Airlines and Southwest Airlines scheduled to discuss first-quarter 2026 results in the coming days.

The backdrop is a market that notched record highs last week amid optimism that the U.S., Israel and Iran could move closer to resolution. Tech shares led gains as investors showed a renewed appetite for risk. The Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow all logged strong advances, marking a third straight week of gains.

Whether that momentum holds may hinge on the strength of March retail sales and guidance from bellwethers. Together, those signals will shape expectations heading into next week’s Fed meeting and help determine whether the recent rally has further room to run.