Kerala’s 2026 polls see highest turnout since 1987 as LDF battles anti-incumbency, UDF gains, NDA expands

Kerala went to the polls with a surge in participation, recording 78.03 percent turnout in its 16th assembly election — the highest since 1987 — as the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) bids for a third straight term amid visible anti-incumbency. The state has over 2.7 crore registered voters following a Special Intensive Revision led by the Election Commission of India.

Results are due on 4 May. Preliminary indicators suggest a tight contest tilted toward the opposition. According to the latest C-Voter survey, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is expected to get 40 percent of the vote share, while the LDF is at 36 percent.

Kerala traditionally alternated power every five years until 2021, when the LDF made history by winning consecutive assembly elections for the first time in more than four decades. But momentum has appeared to shift since the December 2025 local body polls, where the UDF won a majority of seats.

Those local results underscored regional differences and an evolving party balance. The LDF secured 33.45 percent of the vote and won only one of the state’s six municipal corporations, while the UDF took 38.81 percent and won four. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) registered 14.71 percent and captured one corporation — Thiruvananthapuram, long regarded as an LDF stronghold.

The LDF also saw declines in several areas it had dominated in the 2020 local body polls. In 2020, for instance, the LDF won 34 seats (including five Left-backed independents) in the Kochi corporation to the UDF’s 31 (including one Congress-backed independent), and took control of the Thrissur corporation with support from independents, elevating UDF rebel M.K.

Varghese as mayor. In the run-up to the 2026 assembly vote, the LDF’s support dipped across municipalities within constituencies it won in 2021, including Pattambi, Ettumanoor, Thaliparambu, Kayamkulam and Chengannur. While local contests are shaped by candidate profiles, they have highlighted shifting loyalties across the state.

Several assembly seats have emerged as bellwethers. In Thrissur, the NDA’s breakthrough in the 2024 Lok Sabha election — where Suresh Gopi won — has intensified a three-way fight among CPI candidate Alankode Leelakrishnan, Congress candidate Rajan J Pallan and BJP candidate Padmaja Venugopal.

In 2021, P Balachandran won this assembly seat, defeating Congress candidate Padmaja Venugopal. With Padmaja switching to the BJP in 2024, the contest has sharpened further. Aranmula is another closely watched constituency that has alternated between the CPI(M) and the Congress over the years.

Sitting MLA Veena George of the LDF is in the fray against the BJP’s Kummanam Rajasekharan and the Congress’s Abin Varkey. George has won the last two elections, and the LDF is banking on her profile to hold the seat. In Dharmadam, the home ground of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, the contest pits the incumbent against Congress candidate Abdul Rasheed and the BJP’s K Ranjith.

Post-poll surveys have predicted an edge for the LDF and Vijayan in the constituency. The verdict will show whether the LDF can defy the state’s historic pendulum to secure a third term, whether the UDF can convert recent gains into a statewide advantage, and how far the NDA’s expanding presence — including its control of the Thiruvananthapuram corporation — extends in the assembly map.