JL Partners poll suggests Reform UK could take up to half of English councils; Labour at risk in Wales

Nigel Farage's Reform UK is on course for sweeping gains in next month's local elections, according to a large JL Partners poll that suggests the party could take control of up to 69 English councils — roughly half of those being contested. At the lower end of the polling range, Reform is projected to win 56 councils.

The survey of more than 6,000 people indicates Labour could be reduced to just 42 town halls in May. In Wales, the poll projects a historic shake-up: Plaid Cymru is put on 33 Senedd seats, with Reform second on 29 and Labour third on 17, a configuration that would see Labour ousted from first place there for the first time.

Conservatives are forecast to lose Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk to Reform, the poll suggests, and to finish second or third behind either Reform or the Liberal Democrats in East Sussex, West Sussex and Hampshire. In London, however, the projections indicate Labour would remain the largest party, retaining control of 19 boroughs.

James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, said that if the figures are borne out, Britain would face a political earthquake, with potentially the worst local election for Labour in England, a collapse for the Conservatives in their traditional Blue Wall areas, and a bruising third-place outcome for Labour in Wales.

He added that Reform appears set to be the central story of the night, challenging for opposition status in Wales and picking up councils across England. The polling lands as Reform registers strongly in national opinion surveys, and as questions mount over whether the Prime Minister could face pressure to leave Downing Street after the ballots.

The results in May will test whether Reform's polling momentum translates into council control and whether the established parties can stem projected losses.