Green Bay schools link funding squeeze to fewer new immigrants as enrollment falls

A slowdown in immigration to the Green Bay area is emerging as a new drag on enrollment—and, by extension, state aid—according to the Green Bay Area Public School District, which is bracing for multi‑year budget gaps. “Green Bay welcomes a lot of new immigrants, and we’re just not seeing those numbers right now,” Superintendent Vicki Bayer told a community budget session in February.

She added at a Feb. 9 budget meeting that she expects to see more of this trend nationwide. The district is projecting a budget deficit of up to $8 million in 2026-27 and between $24 million and $32 million in 2027-28. Because Wisconsin funds schools on a per‑pupil basis, fewer students mean less money.

Enrollment has been sliding for years due to factors district leaders say are commonly understood—declining birth rates and expanding school choice—and they now cite fewer newly arrived immigrant families as an additional factor. District officials did not provide data linking immigration trends to enrollment and said they do not track students’ immigration status.

They declined to estimate the impact or make staff available for an interview. State Department of Public Instruction figures, however, show the district lost 425 students between 2024 and 2025 and recorded a historically significant enrollment decline between 2024-25 and 2025-26.

The district’s concern comes amid wider shifts in national migration. The U.S. Census Bureau estimated net international migration fell from 2.7 million in 2024 to 1.3 million in 2025. A Brookings Institution estimate placed net migration even lower for 2025, ranging from negative 10,000 to negative 295,000, which would be the first negative net migration in at least half a century.

Officials and analysts have pointed to increased removals and self‑deportations and slower visa and green card processing as contributing factors. Policy changes have also altered the climate around schools. Last January, the Trump administration removed federal protections that had prevented immigration agencies from entering schools, hospitals and places of worship.

The Green Bay district quickly issued guidance to teachers about what to do if immigration officers arrived or if parents feared deportation. Refugee resettlement has tightened as well. In fiscal year 2024, almost 100,000 refugees were resettled across the United States, according to Gail Cornelius, regional director of World Relief Wisconsin.

She said that number fell to 7,500 in fiscal year 2025. Regardless of immigration status, all children are entitled to a free public education under the 14th Amendment, a principle affirmed by the U.S. Supreme Court in 1982.

For Green Bay, the immediate challenge is financial: with fewer new students arriving and broader demographic shifts continuing, the district’s enrollment—and therefore its revenue—could remain under pressure as it finalizes budgets for 2026-27 and 2027-28.