Farrer by-election could jolt Australian politics as One Nation, independent vie for upset
A by-election in the vast rural electorate of Farrer on 9 May is shaping as an early test of voter discontent with Australia’s major parties, with One Nation and an independent candidate vying to overturn a seat long held by the Coalition. Stretching from the South Australian border to beyond Albury on the Victorian line, Farrer covers around 16 per cent of New South Wales.
It has been represented by Sussan Ley for more than two decades and has voted Liberal or National since its creation in 1949. Now, with support for the major parties eroding, One Nation’s David Farley and independent Michelle Milthorpe are leading the race, according to campaigning dynamics highlighted by analysts.
Milthorpe, a teacher and advocate, and Farley, an agribusiness professional, have focused their campaigns on issues dominating the region: water management, regional healthcare funding, climate projects, cost of living and fuel security. With water a prized commodity for producers along the Murray–Darling Basin, both have zeroed in on the federal government’s contentious water buyback schemes.
Brad Robertson, running for the Nationals, has also made water central to his pitch. “The Murray–Darling Basin Plan is under review and they’re all campaigning on the idea that the agricultural sector needs more of the water compared to the environment,” said Dr Pandanus Petter, a political science research fellow at the Australian National University, noting that water sits at the top of every candidate’s agenda.
A win for One Nation would be historic: the far-right party has not previously secured a lower house seat in federal parliament. If Milthorpe were to prevail, analysts say the Coalition could face a tougher path to reclaiming the seat at future elections. The stakes are heightened by shifting political currents since the late 1990s, when the major parties preferenced One Nation last.
Preference strategies are again in focus. In a recent interview on ABC’s Insiders program, senior opposition figure Angus Taylor urged voters to preference One Nation ahead of others, warning, “If you vote teal, you get Green.” He added that beyond preferencing the Nationals, preferences were about choosing the “least worst” option, while reiterating the Coalition’s priority is primary votes for the Liberal and National parties.
The term “teal,” according to the Macquarie Dictionary, refers to an independent candidate who holds generally moderate views but supports strong action on climate change and political transparency. Milthorpe, who has received some funding from Climate 200, a group known for backing teal candidates, has been explicit that she is not a teal.
Zareh Ghazarian, an associate professor of politics at Monash University, said independents in rural and regional seats are drawing a line between themselves and the inner-city teal movement as they seek to emphasise local representation.
Recent national polling published on 29 April by the Guardian showed One Nation edging marginally ahead of the Coalition on primary votes, a backdrop Dr Petter said helps explain why the opposition would not want to alienate those voters. “It’s not too surprising that they would preference someone that their voters would probably prefer,” he said.
As voters in Farrer head to the polls, the result will be watched for what it signals about the reach of minor parties and community independents in regional Australia—and how the major parties’ preference strategies play in a seat where water, services and cost-of-living pressures dominate daily life.