Early trends put UDF ahead in Kerala, BJP opens leads in Assam as counting begins
Ballot counting opened across four states and a Union Territory on Monday after bruising campaigns and high-stakes contests, with early trends pointing to a strong start for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala and the BJP establishing initial leads in Assam.
Exit polls had signalled potential saffron gains in West Bengal and an edge for the UDF in Kerala, while suggesting incumbents could hold in Assam and Tamil Nadu. One-and-a-half hours into the count in Kerala, trends from 139 of 140 seats showed the UDF leading in 89, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in 44, and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) maintaining leads in five seats.
The UDF was ahead not only in its traditional strongholds of Ernakulam and Malappuram, but also in several constituencies previously held by the LDF in Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Kozhikode and Palakkad. In Kottayam, the trend appeared to favour the UDF; a similar picture emerged in Idukki, where the alliance seemed to regain the upper hand.
While many LDF ministers were trailing, some—including M B Rajesh, Roshi Augustine, O R Kelu and P Rajeeve—were leading. In CPI(M) strongholds of Alappuzha, Congress candidates gained an edge over the Left. Among BJP contenders, Rajeev Chandrasekhar led in Nemom and K.
Surendran in Manjeswaram. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan led in Dharmadom, while high-profile CPI(M) candidate K K Shailaja trailed Congress state president Sunny Joseph in Peravoor. In Assam, very early constituency-wise trends from the Election Commission indicated the BJP building leads in multiple seats, including for sitting ministers Pijush Hazarika in Jagiroad, Ajanta Neog in Golaghat and Bimal Borah in Tingkhang.
The party is eyeing a third consecutive term and has expressed confidence about posting its most commanding win since first taking power in 2016, citing a raft of beneficiary schemes—particularly for women—polarization dynamics and its development report card, alongside references to the contentious delimitation exercise.
Ahead of counting, pollsters projected a saffron surge in West Bengal and an advantage for the UDF in Kerala. In Tamil Nadu and Assam, forecasts pointed to the BJP-led and DMK-led alliances, respectively, retaining power, with a close watch on actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) as a potential disruptor of the DMK–AIADMK duopoly.
In Puducherry, predictions suggested a clear edge for the NDA. The stakes are high: the fate of more than 8,800 candidates will shape the political map across these states and the Union Territory. The outcomes could carry wider implications.
In Kerala, a UDF victory would continue the state’s tradition of alternating power with the LDF and indicate a consolidation of minority votes against an alleged CPI(M)–BJP “deal” to keep the Congress at bay. A BJP win in West Bengal would mark a significant breach into the Trinamool Congress’s south Bengal bastions.
As counting progresses, attention will focus on whether exit poll projections hold and whether the incumbents in Assam and Tamil Nadu retain their grip on power.