China’s April trade beats forecasts as exports surge despite Middle East war

BEIJING: China’s trade accelerated in April, defying forecasts and signs of disruption from the war in the Middle East, with exports and imports both posting strong gains, according to official data released Saturday, May 9. Exports rose 14.1% from a year earlier, the General Administration of Customs (GAC) said, outpacing a Bloomberg survey of economists that had forecast 8.4% and sharply faster than March’s 2.5% increase.

Imports jumped 25.3% year on year, beating a 20.0% forecast, though the pace eased from a 27.8% surge in March. The figures suggest China’s external sector continues to provide a key support as the domestic economy contends with subdued consumer spending and a persistent property-sector debt crisis.

Analysts cited in the report said China’s diversified energy supplies have helped insulate it from immediate shocks stemming from the war with Iran, which the United States and Israel launched in late February, though a broader global downturn would likely weaken demand for Chinese goods.

Trade with the United States showed signs of stabilizing. China’s exports to the US grew 11.3% in April from a year earlier, GAC data showed, reversing a sharp 26.5% decline in March. Shipments to the US had also dropped 11% in January and February combined. The world’s second-largest economy recorded a record trade surplus of US$1.2 trillion last year, and trade imbalances remain a key friction point for Washington.

Amid a shaky truce in the Middle East, observers are watching a high-stakes meeting in Beijing next week between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US counterpart Donald Trump. The talks, previously scheduled for late March, were delayed by the conflict that has sent energy prices higher as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively come to a halt.

Trade is expected to feature prominently, with both sides seeking concessions for their economies. Beijing has set a 2025 growth target range of 4.5% to 5%, the lowest in decades. Early readings indicate the economy is on pace, with first-quarter growth at 5.0%, according to government figures released in April.

Upcoming monthly inflation data due Monday are expected to provide further clues on the outlook for household demand, a shift many economists argue is necessary to rebalance growth away from real estate and infrastructure investment.