Biotechnology and AI Advances, Disinformation Campaigns Compound Increased Risk of WMD Attacks - HSToday

DoD's Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Strategy says that state and non-state actors "have learned from and are adapting to traditional U.S.

counterproliferation tools and approaches." Countering the development and potential use of weapons of mass destruction has grown more complex with biotechnology advances that could be exploited by bad actors as well as rampant disinformation campaigns that could hamper the ability to prevent or respond to an attack or other incident.

The unclassified version of the 2023 Department of Defense (DoD) Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (CWMD) Strategy released Thursday says that the risk of the United States or allies and partners “facing a military confrontation that includes chemical, biological, radiological, and/or nuclear (CBRN) weapons has increased since 2014.” The WMD strategy expands upon the 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS) guidance by outlining four CWMD-specific priorities: defending the homeland from WMD attack, deterring WMD use against the United States and its allies and partners, enabling the Joint Force to prevail in a CBRN-contested environment, and preventing new WMD threats.

DoD said the strategy has six ways of implementation: “develop credible options to deter WMD use and assure Allies and partners,” “build a Joint Force that can campaign, fight, and win in a CBRN environment,” “enable Allies and partners to counter WMD proliferation and use,” “degrade actor capability to develop, acquire, or use WMD,” “take action, as part of whole-of-government efforts, to prevent proliferation and respond to use of WMD,” and “pursue advanced research and development efforts to counter future chemical and biological threats.” “In order to address the challenges of the current and future security environment, the Department must now recapitalize, and in some cases reconstitute, its ability to conduct large-scale joint operations within a WMD-contested battlespace,” the strategy states.

“The Department must also account for evolving factors in relevant DoD operations, activities, and investments to prevent potential adversaries from developing and exploiting an area of perceived asymmetric advantage across the spectrum of conflict.” As major nuclear powers “armed with a suite of nuclear, chemical, and biological capabilities,” China is called the “pacing challenge” making significant investments in its WMD programs and Russia is referred to as an “acute threat.” North Korea, Iran, and violent extremist organizations “remain persistent regional threats that must also be addressed.” The WMD ambitions of state and non-state actors are “compounded by rapid advancements in technology, including the life sciences, artificial intelligence, automation, nanotechnology, hypersonic delivery systems, and defensive systems, such as hardened and deeply buried structures.” “The global availability of dual-use technologies, particularly in the biotechnology space, may erode traditional barriers to proliferation and reduce opportunities to deny or disrupt development of offensive WMD programs and delivery systems,” the strategy says.

“Meanwhile, potential adversaries have learned from and are adapting to traditional U.S.

counterproliferation tools and approaches, including by indigenizing their supply chains and procurement mechanisms.” The proliferation of mis-/disinformation also influences the WMD landscape, as China and Russia have “proven adept at manipulating the information space to inhibit attribution of its activities, to reduce trust and confidence in the effectiveness of countermeasure, and to potentially slow decision-making following WMD use.” China likely intends to deploy at least 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030 and 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035, DoD says, and “has engaged in research and activities with potential dual-use applications, which raise concerns regarding its compliance with the Biological and Toxins Weapons Convention (BWC) and the Chemical Weapons Co…