Australia’s petrol squeeze unlikely to ease quickly despite ceasefire, analysts say

Australian motorists hoping for quick relief at the bowser are likely to be disappointed. Analysts say a rapid return to normal petrol supplies is unlikely even if a ceasefire holds, after oil supply from the Gulf came to a halt amid the war between the US and Iran.

Any immediate price relief is also expected to be delayed. Falls in benchmark oil prices typically take weeks to reach the bowser, meaning even a downturn in crude markets would not deliver instant savings for drivers. Commodity strategist Daniel Hynes said the unprecedented nature of global events cannot be overstated, underscoring the uncertainty hanging over supply and prices.

Analysts caution that while a ceasefire could stabilise market sentiment, restoring normal fuel flows will take time. The outlook, they say, depends on whether the pause in hostilities endures and how quickly supply chains can normalise. For now, the expectation is that any benefit for consumers will lag the wholesale market, leaving prices at the pump elevated until supply disruptions ease and lower crude benchmarks filter through.