ASX 200 weak ahead of March CPI as firm oil and RBA uncertainty keep bears in control

Bears tightened their grip on Australian equities ahead of the March inflation print, with the ASX 200 chalking up a sixth straight decline as investors cut risk and move to the sidelines. Selling has broadened across mining, healthcare, retail and other consumer-linked stocks.

Energy is the exception, supported more by geopolitics than a clean risk-on turn, as Brent crude trades above US$100 amid stalled US–Iran talks and restricted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Inflation risk is back in focus. Stronger domestic activity and firm oil prices leave less room for a softer stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release March CPI on April 29 at 11:30am AEST, and markets have already adopted a defensive tone. Forecasts point to a sharp rise in headline inflation, with IG reporting expectations near 4.8% year on year, while trimmed mean inflation is expected to remain sticky.

That puts the May 5 RBA decision directly in play. The cash rate is currently 4.10%, and the official inflation target remains 2%–3%. A hot CPI print would strengthen the case for another hike, pressuring banks, real estate, consumer discretionary names and high‑duration growth stocks.

Technically, the index has rolled over from an 8,827.7 lower high and is pressing into the 8,600–8,700 support band. The structure is decisively bearish: lower highs, lower lows, and sellers defending rallies. Immediate resistance sits around 8,746–8,760, where the Supertrend acts as a short‑term ceiling, with broader resistance clustered at 8,820–8,900.

Rallies into that zone look corrective. The 500‑SMA near 8,600 is the line in the sand; a break below it opens 8,510, then 8,255. Momentum is stretched, with the Z‑Score SMA near −1.7, making a brief bounce possible, but that does not imply a bottom. For the bearish view to ease, bulls would need to reclaim 8,760 and force a daily close above the 21‑day EMA.

Until then, the bias remains negative and rallies are likely to be sold as traders brace for Wednesday’s CPI.