ASX 200 steadies despite oil surge and NAB’s $2.05bn hit, uptrend holds above 8,750
Australian equities held their ground despite fresh geopolitical turbulence and a 7% jump in crude, with the ASX 200 maintaining its broader uptrend as investors rotated into domestic quality names. With the Strait of Hormuz operating as a permission-based corridor and an April ceasefire deadline approaching, positioning shifted away from war‑premium energy trades.
Some market commentary linked the rotation to anticipated optimism around upcoming comments by President Trump. The resilience came even as National Australia Bank announced $2.05 billion in one‑off charges. NAB also said credit impairment charges doubled to $706 million as it built buffers for transport and agriculture, sectors on the front line of rising fuel costs.
The bank moved to a discounted dividend reinvestment plan, described in the commentary as effectively a quiet capital raise. Despite the shock from NAB, Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Westpac posted gains, underscoring underlying buyer conviction. Technically, the weekly structure still leans upward.
The index remains well above its longer‑term recovery base and, crucially, above the lower weekly Supertrend band near 8,750. As long as 8,754 holds, the setup stays constructive. However, momentum has cooled: the ASX 200 again met supply in the 9,100–9,223 zone and backed away, struggling to convert new highs into a clean weekly breakout.
A decisive push through 9,223 would signal buyers are ready to extend again. On the daily time frame, conditions look healthier than during March’s washout. The rebound from 8,255 reclaimed the 21‑day EMA, and price is holding above that gauge with RSI around 55—constructive without being stretched.
The market has stabilized near the 8,900 area; a daily close through the recent congestion could reopen the path toward 9,050 and the 9,223 high. Very short‑term signals are softer: Renko charts show intraday momentum flattening around 8,900–9,050, with price hovering under the short‑term Supertrend level.
Even so, the 500‑SMA is still rising, RSI is below 50 and the Z‑score near −0.3—more consistent with consolidation than aggressive distribution. Medium term, the ASX 200 remains in a recovery phase but appears to need a fresh catalyst to break higher. The near‑term pivot is 8,843 on the daily EMA; holding above that level keeps a retest of 9,230 in play, while a loss of that area would likely see a drift back toward 8,750.
The commentary flagged the expiry of the current ceasefire in April as a critical pivot point for risk sentiment.