ASX 200 opens May with 0.74% rebound as traders eye RBA and resistance at 8,826–8,847
The ASX 200 started May on the front foot, rising 0.74% on the month’s first trading day as bargain hunting, stronger Chinese factory activity and an upgraded Australian manufacturing PMI lifted sentiment. The gain follows a rough late April, and the five-day performance remains negative at -0.72%, keeping the move squarely in rebound territory rather than a confirmed trend change.
Gains were broad-based, led by NexGen Energy, up 6.31%, Mineral Resources, up 4.69%, and Coles Group, up 3.66%. Mining heavyweights BHP and Rio Tinto also advanced, each up about 2%, helping underpin the index. Traders are now focused on next week’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, with a possible 25 basis point rate increase to 4.35% cited amid sticky inflation.
Policy expectations are likely to shape near-term equity momentum alongside corporate updates and offshore cues. Seasonally, May has often been supportive for the local market. Over the past 10 years, the ASX 200 posted gains in six Mays, with an average return of 0.97% for the month.
On the technical front, investment strategist Cedric Thompson said the index had climbed back above its long-term 500-day simple moving average near 8,688 and that a Supertrend measure had turned positive. He highlighted support in the 8,688–8,700 zone and flagged a resistance band at 8,826–8,847.
According to Thompson, momentum indicators are mixed, with the RSI above 50 while a Z-Score SMA remains in a downtrend, suggesting scope for further consolidation. Thompson added that a sustained break above 8,826–8,847 could open a push toward 8,990–9,050, especially if policy developments do not surprise the market.
Conversely, a drop back below 8,688 would put the recovery under pressure and could bring 8,598 back into view. The next test for the index will be whether it can hold above the 500-day average and retake the cited resistance band in the coming sessions, with the RBA decision a key catalyst for direction.