Assam Election 2026 vs 2021: Alliances Shift As BJP Eyes Third Term, Opposition Recasts Strategy
With elections approaching in Assam, the political contest in the state reflects both continuity and change compared with the 2021 polls. While the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is attempting to retain power for a third straight term, the opposition space has undergone a significant realignment, with the Congress forming a new multi-party bloc after the earlier Mahajot experiment in 2021.
The 126-member Assam Assembly will go to the polls in a single phase on April 9, 2026, with counting scheduled for May 4, according to the Election Commission. As Assam heads into the 2026 Assembly election, below is a structured comparison of alliances, vote share, seats contested and won, and broader political trends between the 2021 and 2026 Assam elections.
ALLIANCE STRUCTURE: OPPOSITION RECONFIGURES AFTER MAHAJOT EXPERIMENT In the 2021 Assembly election, the principal contest was between the NDA, comprising the BJP, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL); and the Congress-led Mahajot alliance, which included the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) and Left parties.
In 2026, the NDA alliance structure largely remains intact, with BJP continuing its partnership with AGP and UPPL, and aiming to build on its previous electoral performance. However, the opposition formation has changed significantly. Congress is contesting the election as part of a six-party alliance with Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), Raijor Dal, CPI(M), CPI(ML) and All Party Hill Leaders Conference.
Unlike 2021, AIUDF is not part of the Congress-led alliance this time, indicating a shift in opposition strategy. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) has also fielded candidates in multiple constituencies, adding another player to the electoral landscape.
Political analysts note that regional parties in Assam have increasingly aligned with national parties over the years, reflecting the growing dominance of larger political formations in the state’s electoral politics. SEAT SHARING: BJP RETAINS DOMINANT POSITION WITHIN NDA Seat-sharing patterns indicate that the BJP continues to contest the majority of seats within the NDA framework.
In the 2021 election, the BJP contested over 90 constituencies, while AGP and UPPL contested fewer seats as alliance partners. For 2026, Congress has declared candidates for 101 out of 126 seats, leaving several constituencies for alliance partners, including Raijor Dal, which is expected to contest around 11 seats as part of the opposition arrangement.
The TMC has so far announced candidates for 17 constituencies, suggesting a possible division of opposition votes in select seats. 2021 RESULTS: NDA CONVERTED MARGINAL VOTE EDGE INTO CLEAR MAJORITY In the 2021 Assembly election, the NDA secured 75 seats in the 126-member House, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 64.
The Congress-led Mahajot alliance secured 49 seats. Despite a relatively narrow difference in vote share between the two alliances, the NDA managed a decisive lead in seat tally, highlighting the impact of constituency-level vote distribution. 2026 ELECTION DYNAMICS: DEFECTIONS, CANDIDATE CHANGES AND ANTI-INCUMBENCY FACTOR The 2026 election has also witnessed political shifts through party-switching and candidate reshuffles.
Former Assam minister Nandita Gorlosa joined the Congress after resigning from the BJP, and is expected to contest from the Haflong seat. The BJP has dropped at least 18 sitting MLAs as part of its strategy to counter anti-incumbency and introduce new candidates ahead of the polls.
Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is again contesting from Jalukbari, a constituency he has won multiple times since 2001. Meanwhile, regional identity politics continues to be an important electoral issue in Assam, with debates around the protection of language, land, and cultural identity influencing political narratives.
Analysts note that regional parties have increasingly aligned wit…