Ahead of May 14-15 visit, China aims to extend trade truce with targeted gains, wary of Iran pressure

US President Donald Trump is due to visit China on May 14-15 for talks expected to include a meeting with President Xi Jinping, after an earlier summit was delayed because of the Iran war. Beijing wants a broad reset in ties but views that outcome as unlikely, according to Benjamin Ho of Singapore’s S.

Rajaratnam School of International Studies. The two powers had been locked in a bruising trade war in which US levies on many Chinese goods climbed to 145 percent. Tensions eased after Trump and Xi agreed in October to a one-year truce. Analysts say Beijing’s baseline goal for the upcoming talks is to extend that ceasefire.

What China needs, said Yue Su of the Economist Intelligence Unit, is for Trump to follow through on his promise to engage, with at least a few concrete outcomes discussed at the highest level. She added that Beijing would be satisfied with targeted results—such as limited tariff reductions—that could justify a measured rollback of its own tariffs or export restrictions.

The Iran issue will be hard to avoid in a Trump-Xi meeting, several experts said, though it is not a domain China is eager to engage deeply on. Lizzi Lee of the Asia Society Policy Institute said Washington is already increasing pre-summit pressure by targeting China’s economic ties with Tehran.

Trump warned last month he would hit Chinese goods with a 50 percent tariff if Beijing provided military assistance to Iran. Even so, Su said China will not accept pressure from the United States to take action on Iran or Russia, over whom it may have some influence but not decisive control.

She added that Beijing will seek to avoid additional complications, such as new US tariffs linked to China’s trade with Iran, being introduced into an already complex relationship. Lee said the Iran war adds another layer of mutual pressure, but the real negotiating terrain remains trade and investment.

One of Beijing’s strongest bargaining chips is rare earths—metals vital for products from smartphones to electric cars. China’s dominance in rare earths, built over decades from reserves and mining through processing and innovation, remains a powerful tool if meaningful concessions from the United States are needed, Su said.

Trump cares a lot about rare earths, noted Joe Mazur of Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China, adding that the United States does not have an easy answer to China’s position in the sector. Mazur said Beijing is likely to line up quick wins before the visit, potentially including purchases of US agricultural goods or Boeing jets, in hopes of putting Trump’s team in a positive frame of mind ahead of thornier discussions.

China has also hedged against instability by diversifying trade toward Southeast Asia and the Global South and strengthening regional ties, Lee said. She added that Beijing has sharpened its legal and regulatory toolbox and has a potentially more extensive playbook.

As the visit approaches, analysts say Beijing will prioritize incremental, reciprocal steps that keep the trade truce intact and avoid new flashpoints.